Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.

Donald Rogers
Donald Rogers

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